Countdown: 1 week

I’m doing a necessary brain dump.  One week until my first fantasy draft of the season, so hoopty doo and dickery dock.  I’ll be staring off into space a lot this week with delusions of fantasy grandeur.  Every year I seem to convince myself that every other team will make colossally disastrous picks and I’ll get the top 10 guys in the league.  Sad?  Yes.

Anyway, I’ve got that draft on Wednesday night for the alleged 14 team league, only 9 have signed up so far, then I’ve got the TUFFKL draft starting online immediately after the last preseason game on the September 3rd.  I won’t be staying up until 2 AM to draft, but I doubt I’ll sleep much that night.  I may have to be locked in my bedroom to keep me from sitting at the computer at 5 AM waiting for everyone else to arrive in the draft room.

There has been some keeper movement in TUFFKL this week.  Final keepers don’t have to be announced until right before the draft starts, so it’s all tentative, but one team switched from keeping Ray Rice and Rashard Mendenhall to Rice and Shonn Greene, probably a smart move.  That doesn’t effect Space Mountain too much, Mendenhall or Greene would both go in the first round no matter who’s kept.

We’re keeping DeAngelo Williams, drafting 3rd in the first round, then drafting 13th overall because we get a supplemental pick for only keeping one player.  The first two picks ahead of us will actually determine what we’re doing for the rest of the draft.  We actually have a plan that may stay in place.  We’re getting 2 of the top 13 players available.  On a typical cheat sheet these are the top 15 players not being kept: Adrian Peterson, S. Jackson, Cedric Benson, Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Matthews, Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald,  Calvin Johnson,  Jamaal Charles,  Beanie Wells, Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson, Marques Colston.  We will get two players from that list (unless we decide to take someone crazy).

Let’s play “What scares me about each of them?”  Colston, too many balls to go around in New Orleans.  Peterson, probably getting taken first anyway, but the fumbles, no Sidney Rice, and this year is not last year.  Fitzgerald and Wells will be lead by Matt Leinart or Derek Anderson.

Maybe the happiest man in the NFL.

Seriously, would you take Fitzgerald over DeSean Jackson or Colston right now?  How much do you think Anquan Boldin smiles every day for getting out of there?  Steven Jackson, they’ll stink and this isn’t a PPR for running backs league.  Mendenhall doesn’t actually scare me too much, but if he keeps fumbling than Mike Tomlin will hate him again.  Brandon Marshall keeps dropping the ball, but it’s only preseason.  Still, I don’t see him having 100 receptions in that offense.  Jamaal Charles has Thomas Jones in the backfield with him, plus I’m always leery of a player that is great for parts of his “breakout” season and that’s all we have to see from him.  It makes me nervous about Miles Austin too.  Ryan Matthews is a rookie and Norv Turner may have already worn him down come playoff time, and apparently he’s crazy.  Greg Jennings may have the same problem that Colston does in having too many weapons on the offense.

I actually like Benson, Moss (contract year), White, Johnson, and Jackson, but I don’t think we’ll get two of them.  Eventually I’ll make myself paranoid thinking about who’s due to get hurt.  Everyone gets hurt and misses time, except for Peyton Manning and Brett Favre.

He's due. You're warned.

I’m apprehensive of a guy like Maurice Jones-Drew who’s not a big guy and carried the load by himself last year on a bad team, and hasn’t missed any significant time in his career.  It’s probably enough to make me take Frank Gore or Andre Johnson over him.  What am I saying?  Can we really expect Andre Johnson or Matt Schaub to make it through two full seasons in a row?

But while I type all that injury business, over on another synapse I’m trying to decide at what point is it all right to draft Sidney Rice and stash him away until mid-season.  Will Brett Favre even last that long?  And what the hell’s going on with Vincent Jackson?

I do know this, no booze for me during either draft.  I’ve learned that lesson too many times. In 2000 I got burned, because I had been drinking and forgot to turn the page on my rankings sheet and ended up picking some scrub from the Browns while Charlie Garner sat at the top of the next page and ended up having a Pro Bowl season.  This year, I think I may meditate for the half hour leading up to the draft, then drink a pot of coffee.  That sounds like a plan.

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading, that was rambly.  Here’s a gift for your loyalty:


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